20 10 / 2011
LEAD 3-LVMH résiste aux aléas conjoncturels et maintient la cadence
* Ralentissement dans les vins & spiritueux
(Actualisé avec avec précisions, conférence téléphonique)par Pascale DenisPARIS, 18 octobre (Reuters) - LVMH a maintenu la
cadence d’une très solide croissance organique au troisième
trimestre, malgré les aléas de la conjoncture et les craintes de
ralentissement de la demande de produits de luxe dans les pays
matures.Le chiffre d’affaires du numéro un mondial du secteur,
propriétaire du malletier Louis Vuitton, du cognac Hennessy ou
des parfums Christian Dior, a progressé de 17,6% au troisième
trimestre, à 6,01 milliards d’euros, un chiffre supérieur au
consensus des analystes interrogés par Reuters (5,8 milliards).La croissance organique s’est quant à elle maintenue à 15%,
comme au premier semestre, alors que les analystes anticipaient
un ralentissement à 12,5% et que la base de comparaison du
troisième trimestre 2010 était déjà élevée (+14%).”Les chiffres sont bons, ils montrent que le secteur ne
subit pas le ralentissement escompté”, a commenté un analyste
souhaitant garder l’anonymat.Après Burberry la semaine dernière (voir
), LVMH vient confirmer la résistance du secteur
qui, par sa diversification géographique et sa forte exposition
au moteur asiatique, peut compenser les accès de faiblesse de
certains de ses marchés.Car les chiffres, unanimement salués comme très solides par
les analystes, montrent que LVMH n’a pas été épargné par le
marasme qui touche l’Europe, où la hausse des ventes du groupe,
en devises locales, a été limitée à 7%, tandis que la
progression a atteint 18% aux Etats-Unis et 27% en Asie.”Nous avons un petit ralentissement en Europe”, a reconnu le
directeur financier du groupe Jean-Jacques Guiony, lors d’une
conférence téléphonique, tout en ajoutant que “l’environnement
dans lequel opère LVMH n’a pas fondamentalement changé depuis le
début de l’année”.Après des débuts en baisse à la Bourse de Paris, le titre
LVMH s’est repris en cours de séance pour afficher un gain de
0,4% à 114,00 euros en clôture, dans un marché en repli
de 0,8%. La valeur limite sa perte à 7,8% depuis le début de
l’année, à comparer à une baisse de 14,5% pour son concurrent
suisse Richemont , mais à des hausses de 12,3% pour
Burberry ou de 16% pour Tiffany .LE MOTEUR VUITTONEn marge des défilés parisiens de prêt-à -porter au début du
mois, de grands noms du secteur avaient déclaré ne voir aucun
signe de tassement de la demande au troisième trimestre.Pourtant, avec la crise de la dette en Europe et les menaces
de ralentissement aux Etats-Unis et en Asie, nombre d’analystes
anticipent une moindre progression du marché mondial du luxe en
2012 et ont d’ores et déjà révisé en baisse leurs prévisions de
croissance interne pour l’an prochain. ( )”La progression des ventes continue d’être soutenue en Asie,
en Europe et aux Etats-Unis, tandis que le Japon voit un retour
à la croissance”, a souligné LVMH.Fort de ces chiffres, le groupe affiche sa “confiance” pour
l’ensemble de l’exercice 2011, sans toutefois donner de
précision sur ses anticipations pour les ventes de fin d’année,
une période cruciale pour le secteur.Le pôle mode et maroquinerie a vu sa croissance organique
atteindre 15% sur neuf mois, après 14% au premier semestre,
tirée par la pépite Louis Vuitton. Le malletier, principal
centre de profit du groupe, pourrait avoir dépassé les 15% de
croissance interne, selon des estimations d’analystes.Après les hausses de prix passées sur la marque aux sacs
monogrammés au premier semestre en Europe, aux Etats-Unis et en
Chine, LVMH n’entend pas procéder à de nouveaux relèvements de
prix en 2011. Jean-Jacques Guiony a également indiqué que
l’accroissement des capacités de production de Vuitton devraient
lui permettre de répondre sans difficulté à la demande de fin
d’année.TASSEMENT DANS LES VINS & SPIRITUEUXA l’inverse, les ventes de vins et spiritueux ont vu leur
croissance organique décélérer à 11% sur neuf mois. Les ventes
de champagne ont baissé en volume au troisième trimestre en
Europe, en raison de mauvaises performances chez Mercier. Elles
ont aussi reculé aux Etats-Unis avec une gestion des stocks très
serrées en prévision des ventes de fin d’année.Dans le cognac, la stabilité des ventes en volume aux
Etats-Unis a été compensée par une forte progression en Asie,
permettant de solder le trimestre sur une hausse de 8%.Les ventes de la distribution sélective (DFS, Sephora) ont
accéléré la cadence avec une croissance organique de 19%.Le rythme s’est très légèrement tassé dans les parfums et
cosmétiques (+10%), alors que les récentes déclarations de
Clarins à Reuters laissent anticiper une année 2012 difficile en
Europe. Les ventes ont légèrement baissé au troisième trimestre
Europe, affaiblies par de mauvaises performances en Europe du
Sud, tandis que la baisse a été plus large au plan géographique
pour les produits de soin de la peau, a précisé Jean-Jacques
Guiony.Dans les montres et la joaillerie, qui intègrent désormais
Bulgari, la croissance reste spectaculaire, Ã l’image des
exportations de montres suisses, à 26%, malgré, là aussi, un
ralentissement en Europe du sud, mais aussi en Suisse (pénalisée
par la hausse du franc suisse). Pour le joailler italien, la
croissance a été du même ordre que celle de l’ensemble de la
division.Les chiffres de PPR , propriétaire de Gucci, sont
attendus le 26 octobre et ceux d’Hermès (dont LVMH
détient 21,4%) le 4 novembre.Voir aussi :* Burberry, des résultats du T2 supérieurs aux attentes* Longchamp - La demande résiste aux aléas de la conjoncture* Hermès ne constate pas de recul des dépenses malgré le
contexte* Mode-Le ciel s’assombrit pour les acteurs du luxe* INTERVIEW-Clarins inquiet pour l’Europe* Bourse-Le luxe pâtit à son tour des craintes sur la
croissance mondiale
Permalink 39 notes
18 10 / 2011
TEXT-Fitch revises Atrium’s outlook to positive
“Fitch expects Atrium’s financial metrics to remain resilient and stable in
the next two years, despite two major shopping centre acquisitions in 2011,”
says Jean-Pierre Husband, a Director in Fitch’s EMEA Corporate Finance team.
“The Positive Outlook reflects Atrium’s substantial progress in resolving
outstanding litigation claims, which is a prerequisite for any upgrade of the
ratings.”Fitch believes Atrium’s EBIT NIC should settle between a still comfortable
5.0x and 5.5x in 2011-2013 (including the Prague and Promenada, Poland shopping
centre acquisitions completed this year) despite the agency’s assumption of
higher interest costs on bank debt during the period. Fitch expects Atrium to
maintain an EBIT NIC of above 2.0x for an investment grade rating.Net leverage should also stay moderate in the next three years
(loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of between 5% and 25%) and below industry averages in
the short to medium term (LTVs of around 35%-45%). This allows Atrium some
financial
flexibility, although recent acquisitions have used secured debt, which may
constrain the group’s unsecured asset cover. Fitch expects Atrium to diversify
its access and sources of funding in the next two to three years.The contentious position between Meinl Bank AG (Meinl) and Atrium was
resolved in June 2011, with all claims and lawsuits against each other
withdrawn. Fitch notes that Atrium made no cash payments under this settlement.
The companies also agreed to sever all business ties and new bond trustees were
appointed.The ratings are constrained by the remaining outstanding litigation
regarding the share buybacks in 2007. Although Fitch believes that the ultimate
liability to the owners and management is limited, there is still some residual
uncertainty and Atrium’s ability to issue new bonds may be constrained. The
resolution of all residual litigation claims would be a strong positive towards
the restoration of an investment grade rating for the group.Atrium’s EBIT net interest cover (NIC) improved to 7.7x in 2010 (8.6x at
H111) from 2.7x in 2009. This was due to stable rental income, reduced property
costs and lower interest payments, resulting from high-coupon bond buybacks.Gross rental income increased by 1.8% in 2010 (+14.5% at H111 compared to
H110), as Atrium restricted temporary letting discounts in Russia and improved
occupancy rates. This positive trend is underlined by increased occupancy across
the group’s CEE shopping centre portfolio, now at 96.6% at H111 (94.6% at H110).At 30 June 2011, while the group had no undrawn committed debt facilities,
Atrium had EUR210m of cash deposits available, sufficient to pay the outstanding
development costs and total debt maturities of EUR51m in H211 and 2012. With
only EUR8m of committed development spending, Atrium’s liquidity remains
relatively strong (with a liquidity score of around 4.1x at H111). A liquidity
score of at least 1.75x is considered appropriate for a return to a ‘BBB-’ IDR
rating.
Permalink 43 notes
17 10 / 2011
UPDATE 2-IBM’s Q3 heightens caution, spurs sell-off
* Stock dips after hours as economy worries weigh
(Adds details on Street views, analyst’s comments, byline,
dateline)By Noel RandewichSAN FRANCISCO, Oct 17 (Reuters) - IBM’s quarterly revenue
and services signings barely met Wall Street forecasts,
underscoring investors’ fears about slower information
technology spending and depressing its stock more than 3
percent.IBM, a bellwether for the IT hardware sector with its
global span and diverse clientele, needed to beat forecasts
significantly to ease investors’ concerns, analysts said.International Business Machines Corp’s total services
signings — an indicator of future growth — climbed to $12.3
billion in the third quarter, at the low end of expectations of
$12 billion to $13 billion.Revenue rose 8 percent to $26.2 billion, marginally softer
than an average forecast of $26.26 billion.IBM, which has consistently beaten Wall Street forecasts,
raised its full-year diluted earnings forecast to at least
$13.35 per share, from its prior estimate of at least $13.25.
But that was just pennies above the Wall Street target of
$13.32, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.”Whatever IBM could control, they did a great job. But they
are not immune to macro conditions. Financial conditions are
tough,” said Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry.”People don’t want to cancel projects, but projects are
getting delayed. Sales cycles are getting elongated. New
projects are getting smaller budgets.”Buttressed by recurring revenue that helps keep IBM’s
results steady in strong and weak economies, the company’s
shares have outperformed the broader market. They are up about
28 percent this year versus the Standard & Poor’s 500 index’s 4
percent dip.Some analysts said Monday’s showing, in barely meeting
expectations, may have triggered profit-taking. Its stock fell
3.7 percent to $179.70 in extended trade after closing down
2.07 percent on the New York Stock Exchange.”The company exceeded published expectations, but the
underlying expectations were even higher,” Annex Research
analyst Bob Djurdjevic said. “Investors who have been very
bullish on IBM are probably taking some profits now.”U.S. economic concerns and a worsening European financial
crisis have hurt demand. But companies such as IBM that sell
hardware and software for data centers powering the Internet
have remained resilient.IBM reported a third-quarter profit, excluding items, of
$3.28 per share, up 15 percent year over year, just pennies
above expectations for $3.22.
Permalink 23 notes
14 10 / 2011
Students storm Goldman Sachs building in Milan
Students managed to break into the hall of the Goldman Sachs building in the heart of Milan’s financial district, a few steps away from La Scala opera house, police said.The protests were quickly dispersed by police and security was restored to the elegant building, though red graffiti was daubed on its walls expressing anger at Italy’s Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and proclaiming “Give us money.”Protesters in Italy’s financial capital also hurled eggs at the headquarters of UniCredit, the country’s biggest bank.As part of the global rally on Saturday, a demostration is scheduled to start at 1200 GMT (8 a.m. EDT) in Rome, where peaceful protests in front of the Bank of Italy continued on Friday for a third straight day.
Permalink 53 notes
13 10 / 2011
Who’s behind the Wall St. protests?
There has been much speculation over who is financing the disparate protest, which has spread to cities across America and lasted nearly four weeks. One name that keeps coming up is investor George Soros, who in September debuted in the top 10 list of wealthiest Americans. Conservative critics contend the movement is a Trojan horse for a secret Soros agenda.Soros and the protesters deny any connection. But Reuters did find indirect financial links between Soros and Adbusters, an anti-capitalist group in Canada which started the protests with an inventive marketing campaign aimed at sparking an Arab Spring type uprising against Wall Street. Moreover, Soros and the protesters share some ideological ground.”I can understand their sentiment,” Soros told reporters last week at the United Nations about the Occupy Wall Street demonstrations, which are expected to spur solidarity marches globally on Saturday.Pressed further for his views on the movement and the protesters, Soros refused to be drawn in. But conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh summed up the speculation when he told his listeners last week, “George Soros money is behind this.”Soros, 81, is No. 7 on the Forbes 400 list with a fortune of $22 billion, which has ballooned in recent years as he deftly responded to financial market turmoil. He has pledged to give away all his wealth, half of it while he earns it and the rest when he dies.Like the protesters, Soros is no fan of the 2008 bank bailouts and subsequent government purchase of the toxic sub-prime mortgage assets they amassed in the property bubble.The protesters say the Wall Street bank bailouts in 2008 left banks enjoying huge profits while average Americans suffered under high unemployment and job insecurity with little help from Washington. They contend that the richest 1 percent of Americans have amassed vast fortunes while being taxed at a lower rate than most people.BANKING LIFE SUPPORTSoros in 2009 wrote in an editorial that the purchase of toxic bank assets would, “provide artificial life support for the banks at considerable expense to the taxpayer.”He urged the Obama administration to take bolder action, either by recapitalizing or nationalizing the banks and forcing them to lend at attractive rates. His advice went unheeded.The Hungarian-American was an early supporter of the 2008 election campaign of Barack Obama, who will seek a second term as president in the November, 2012, election. He has long backed liberal causes - the Open Society Institute, the foreign policy think tank Council on Foreign Relations and Human Rights Watch.According to disclosure documents from 2007-2009, Soros’ Open Society gave grants of $3.5 million to the Tides Center, a San Francisco-based group that acts almost like a clearing house for other donors, directing their contributions to liberal non-profit groups. Among others the Tides Center has partnered with are the Ford Foundation and the Gates Foundation.Disclosure documents also show Tides, which declined comment, gave Adbusters grants of $185,000 from 2001-2010, including nearly $26,000 between 2007-2009.Aides to Soros say any connection is tenuous and that Soros has never heard of Adbusters. Soros himself declined comment.The Vancouver-based group, which publishes a magazine and runs such campaigns as “Digital Detox Week” and “Buy Nothing Day,” says it wants to “change the way corporations wield power” and its goal is “to topple existing power structures.”SLOW STARTAdbusters, whose magazine has a circulation of 120,000 and which is known for its spoofs of popular advertisements, came up with the Occupy Wall Street idea after Arab Spring protests toppled governments in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, said Kalle Lasn, 69, Adbusters co-founder.”It came out of these brainstorming sessions we have at Adbusters,” Lasn told Reuters, adding they began promoting it online on July 13. “We were inspired by what happened in Tunisia and Egypt and we had this feeling that America was ripe for a Tahrir moment.”“We felt there was a real rage building up in America, and we thought that we would like to create a spark which would give expression for this rage.”Lasn said Adbusters is 95 percent funded by subscribers paying for the magazine. “George Soros’s ideas are quite good, many of them. I wish he would give Adbusters some money, we sorely need it,” she said. “He’s never given us a penny.”Other support for Occupy Wall Street has come from online funding website Kickstarter, where more than $75,000 has been pledged, deliveries of food and from cash dropped in a bucket at the park. Liberal film maker Michael Moore has also pledged to donate money.The protests began in earnest on September 17, triggered by an Adbusters campaign featuring a provocative poster showing a ballerina dancing atop the famous bronze bull in New York’s financial district as a crowd of protesters wearing gas masks approach behind her.Dressed in anarchist black, the battle-ready mob is shrouded in a fog suggestive of tear gas or fires burning. Some are wearing gas masks, others wielding sticks. The poster’s message seems to be a heady combination of sexuality, violence, excitement and adventure.Former carpenter Robert Daros, 23, saw that poster in a cafe in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Having lost his work as a carpenter after Florida’s speculative construction boom collapsed in a heap of sub-prime mortgage foreclosures, he quit his job as a bartender and traveled to New York City with just a sleeping bag and the hope of joining the protest movement.Daros was one of the first people to arrive on Wall Street for the so-called occupation on September 17, when protesters marched and tried to camp on Wall Street only to be driven off by police to Zuccotti Park - two acres of concrete without a blade of grass near the rising One World Trade Center.”When I was a carpenter, I lost my job because the financier of my project was arrested for corporate fraud,” said Daros, who was wearing a red arm band to show he was helping out in the medic section of the Occupy Wall Street camp.Since its obscure beginnings, the campaign has drawn global media attention in places as far-flung as Iran and China. The Times of London, however, was not alone when it called the protests “Passionate but Pointless.”Adbusters’ co-founder Lasn dismisses that, reeling off specific demands: a tax on the richest 1 percent, a tax on currency trades and a tax on all financial transactions.”Down the road, there will be crystal clear demands coming out of this movement,” she said. “But this first phase of the movement is messy and leaderless and demandless.”“I think it was perfect the way it happened.”
